Undoubtedly, it is hard to predict all long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine.
First of all, I hope that in the long term (I probably do not believe in the short or mid-term in this case), Ukraine will be rebuilt with the help of Western countries and the Russian war reparations. I hope that Ukraine will join the EU and NATO. Still, after fucking Putin’s army invasion, I know that the latter option became rather impossible. In the long-term, Ukraine probably will become a militarily neutral country with close bonds to the European Union with Poland at the forefront.
What about Russia?
What will be the long-term consequences of the conflict for the biggest (ranked by the area) country globally? The fundamental answer is that the United States of America imposed such brutal sanctions that they will be doing “business as usual” with Russia on the level they do with… Cuba and North Korea. It means that it won’t be any business with Russia. I keep my fingers crossed for all the EU countries to impose much harsher sanctions. It means that Germany should stop buying gas from Russia. Russia’s economy will decrease long-term, becoming addicted to China’s decisions. I hope that Russia will lose abilities to military conquer other countries in the long term.
Moreover, I can easily imagine that Russia will lose trust, reliance, and confidence from the investors from the Western countries.
Will Russia become China’s satellite country? Yes, it is possible. Still, I already have written that doing business with Russia and, consequently, falling into disfavor with the Western countries won’t be economically a good option for China. I have no doubts that we all cannot predict all the long-term consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. Worse, we cannot foresee too many issues in the short and mid-term. I keep my fingers crossed for Ukrainians to stay strong.
PS
I wrote this text on the 18th of March, 2022.
